Weekly Market Commentary : August 1st to 5th 2016

EURUSD rallied higher late last week, to end the week right at the key resistance near 1.1180 area. It’s too early to tell if price will consolidate here or continue to head into the major overhead key level around 1.1400. Both sides of the market (long and short) could provide opportunities this week. However, we will be specifically waiting for a price action signal to confirm an entry, right now we are in ‘hurry up and wait mode’ in the EURUSD.

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AUDUSD we remain bullish (upward biased) on the AUDUSD above 0.7320 key support level. The last few weeks have seen a new base form, at 0.7420 which is short0term stronghold for buyers. This week, we can use price weakness as an opportunity to buy, with upside potential into 0.7655 and 0.7830. Beware of the upcoming RBA announcement this Tuesday; expect volatility.

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GBPUSD continues to consolidate sideways and we are still bearish whilst under 1.3520 – 1.3480 area and we are watching for price action sell signals any further strength whilst below that resistance zone.

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USDJPY sold-off last week following the bearish reversals we have seen up near 106.60 on July 21st and then July 27th, both of which we discussed in-depth in our members commentary when they formed. We see the potential for more downside movement in the USDJPY this week and traders can look to use any strength as a potential selling opportunity whilst prices are contained under that 106.50 level.

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S&P500 consolidated near recent highs last week; notice the cluster of bullish pin bars that formed. Whilst this pin bar cluster looks interesting and it could indeed break higher, prices could still pull-back, which would provide us with our ideal entry from value (support). We prefer the more conservative entry and will wait for a short-term correction back towards 2120.00 in the market before getting long. Whilst price remains firmly above 2120 key support level we are bullish and expect strong upside trend to continue.

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CRUDE OIL with such strong trending momentum (downtrend) in Crude Oil , this aggressive spiral lower could continue into the old key support extremes near $35.59 to $37.50 before seeing some upside relief. This week, there are two potential plays here; sell on any strength under the $44-$46 resistance areas and ride the market into lower levels OR buy the support extremes anticipating a dead-cat bounce higher in coming weeks.

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