Weekly Market Commentary: September 26th to 30th 2016

EURUSD – Last week saw the EURUSD move modestly higher, but it is still sideways overall and stuck within a large trading range between 1.1400 – 1.0900. In the near-term, if price holds under 1.1300 resistance area we could see it reverse to the downside again. This pair is pretty volatile / erratic right now so it may be best to just stand aside until a more obvious signal forms.


GBPUSD – The GBPUSD continues to grind sideways to lower. As we have been for weeks and months, we remain bearish and can watch for 1hr, 4hr or daily chart price action sell signals on any strength.


AUDUSD – The AUDUSD moved higher last week but failed to move up into the key resistance zone between 0.7690 – 0.7750. Whilst prices remain contained under that key resistance area, we see risk of another rotation lower in this pair. Traders can watch for price action sell signals this week up near that 0.7690 – 0.7750 area.


USDJPY – A huge bearish reversal formed on Wednesday in the USDJPY. This came following the pin bar sell signal from September 14th which we discussed extensively here in the members commentary the week it formed. We expect more downside in this pair and those who missed this trade can watch for upside retraces (strength) to get short.


Crude Oil – In our last discussion of Crude Oil, we were looking to sell somewhere in the resistance zone between 44.40 – 46.40. We can see in the daily chart below that price moved up just about exactly to 46.40 resistance last week before reversing and falling significantly lower from there into Friday’s close. We remain bearish in the near-term on Crude and traders can watch strength this week for opportunities to be a seller up near resistance.


Gold – Gold shot higher last week from the key support area near 1310.00 – 1300.00 that we have been discussing for months now as a buy area. Those not long can continue to watch for weakness this week to get long whilst above 1300.00, ideally on a price action signal but aggressive traders can also consider a blind entry near 1300.00.


S&P500 – The S&P500 continues to recover quite nicely after its recent sell-off, however there is still key resistance up near 2188.00. At this point, if we get a pullback to an obvious support level and a strong 1hr, 4hr or daily chart price action buy signal, we would consider a long entry, as the overall trend is still up. But we are strictly waiting for an obvious buy signal.