Weekly Market Commentary: October 31st to November 4th 2016

EURUSD – The EURUSD has been trending lower in recent weeks and has easily broken down through multiple key support levels. Last week, we saw price stage an upside rally, retracing higher within the overall downtrend this pair has been in. We still see plenty of bearish pressure overhead and can look to sell up near 1.1125 key resistance or 1.1040 near-term resistance if we get a price action sell signal there.


GBPUSD – The GBPUSD has been in a sideways pattern of tight consolidation in recent weeks. This pair is in a downtrend overall and we are looking to be sellers on a price action signal on any upward strength whilst under 1.2855 resistance.


AUDUSD – The AUDUSD has been in a trading range for months now, between key resistance up near 0.7700 – 0.7750 and key support down near 0.7445. A bearish pin bar formed last Wednesday at the key resistance of this range (which we discussed in our members commentary), followed by a sell-off on Thursday. Traders can look to sell this pair this week on any strength whilst under the high of last Wednesday’s bearish pin bar.


NZDUSD – We remain bearish on the NZDUSD and can look to be sellers this week on strength whilst under 0.7230 key resistance. Ideally, we would get a 1 hour, 4 hour or daily chart price action sell signal before initiating any short positions.


USDJPY – The USDJPY has pushed higher in recent weeks, breaking above resistance levels and exhibiting strength. We are bullish this week on this pair and we see support at 103.30 as a potential buy level. Look to buy the dips with a price action signal for confirmation this week.


S&P500 – With the S&P500 has been grinding lower and consolidating in recent weeks, a breakout could be imminent. A Trump victory in the U.S. presidential election could send the market much lower in the short-term and the market is pricing in risk here as we can see it has already starting to turn mildly bearish in recent weeks. We can look to sell strength this week with targets into 2100 or even slightly lower.


Silver – After our previous commentary on Spot Silver in which we discussed looking to sell following two convincing bearish pin bars, we are now moving to neutral. There was no follow-through from these pin bars and price rallied modestly on Friday, which could lead to a move back up above nearby resistance (18.00 are) and the highs of those pin bars. Those of you still short could consider running tight stops above that resistance and those not short could consider standing aside for more price action to unfold.