Weekly Market Commentary: November 14th to 18th 2016

EURUSD – Euro/dollar volatility spikes after U.S. election

The EURUSD lost significant ground last week after shooting dramatically higher in the wake of the U.S. election results and then reversing course, ending the week sharply lower. Notice in the weekly chart below, price shot all the way up to key resistance near 1.1280 mid-week last week, before reversing and ending dramatically lower, indicating that bears are clearly in control. Price is now resting just above 1.0825 key support, but if it breaks under that level we will likely see the sell-off continue. We could look to get short (sell) this market on some strength followed by a 1 hr, 4 hr or daily chart sell signal this week. Resistance up near 1.1125 key resistance is the key level or line in the sand for bears.


GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar likely to continue higher whilst above 1.2340

The GBPUSD has showed renewed strength in recent weeks following some bullish news out of the U.K. The Sterling moved higher last week after rotating down to near 1.2340 support earlier in the week, indicating bulls are still in control here. We could see more upside movement with the next key resistance not until 1.2850. Traders can look to buy on weakness whilst above that 1.2340 level, targeting 1.2850 or slightly below.


AUDUSD – Aussie/dollar continues to lose ground but key support approaching

The AUDUSD is selling off in the wake of US election results. We will wait to take a position for now until clearer price action develops. Watch for buy signal near 0.7460 key support.


GBPJPY – Sterling/yen surges higher on fresh buying

The GBPJPY broke significantly higher last week, closing above the key level at 129.00 and surging higher after a bullish pin bar on Wednesday. Price has moved up above 129.00 key resistance and that level is now a key support level. We see potential for prices to continue higher in this market and can look for buying opportunities on any weakness in the coming days whilst price is above that 129.00 level. Ideally, we would buy on a 1 hour, 4 hour or daily chart price action signal that forms following a retrace lower but whilst still above 129.00 key support.


US500 – U.S. stocks remain buoyant following volatility after Trump win

Upon looking at the daily US500 chart below, we can see the big bullish reversal that took place last Wednesday after the U.S. election was settled. This huge bullish reversal indicates that smart money is pricing in a more optimistic future than what common investors and media outlets had predicted if Trump won. The logical play would be to use weakness to buy in the coming days and we could see a huge upside follow-through into the end of the year. Look for buying opportunities in the US500 between 2106.00 and 2035.00, and whilst price is above that 2035.00 level the bull market remains intact.


Crude – Crude Oil weakness continues

Crude Oil was selling off before the U.S. election and has continued to sell-off after it, indicating bears are decisively in control here. Price is now threatening to break below 43.00 key support level and if that happens we will likely see another leg to the downside. We can look to sell this market on any strength this week, ideally on a 1 hour, 4 hour or daily chart sell signal. Whilst under 47.70 we remain bearish on Crude Oil.


Gold – Gold reverses lower after volatility picks up in wake of US election

The spot Gold market fell dramatically lower last week after briefly breaking above 1310.00 resistance and then reversing sharply into the week’s close. We could see more downside movement in the near-term and look to sell on a retrace whilst under 1300.00 area on a 1 hr, 4 hr or daily chart sell signal.