Weekly Market Commentary: November 29th to December 2nd 2016

EURUSD – Euro/dollar weakness continues
The EURUSD continued to lose ground last week following the break down through 1.0855 – 1.0900 area recently. That area is now seen as strong resistance / containment and we are looking to be sellers whilst under it. We want to stay with the path of least resistance, which is clearly to the downside right now, and we will be waiting for prices to stage a short-term bounce, then look to aggressively sell short. Traders should keep an eye on the 4-hour or daily chart for price action sell signals on any strength this week.


GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar holding above key support, inside bar pattern forms
Recent price action in the GBPUSD shows us that price has been holding above a key support level at 1.2335. Notice last Friday, an inside bar pattern formed on the daily chart time frame as price remains buoyant above the aforementioned support. If price breaks higher form this setup, there is very little resistance until 1.2850 area, so we could see a nice move higher. The short-term view is bullish above the core support at 1.2335, which is the line in sand right now for bulls.


AUDUSD – Aussie/dollar bears in control
After failing at major resistance at 0.7800, the AUDUSD has collapsed lower and subsequently given up the 0.7440 level as well as 0.7500 to 0.7565 core support / containment zone. The short-term dynamics have now turned bearish in this market. We would be sellers if price moved towards that 0.7500-07565 resistance area or on a clear price action sell signal. We will be waiting for prices to stage a short-term bounce and we will then look to aggressively sell short. Traders can keep an eye on the 4 hour or daily chart for price action sell signals in the short term.


GBPJPY – Sterling/yen still a potential buy on pullback
We commented on the GBPJPY daily chart last week in our November 16th commentary, where we discussed the fresh uptrend underway in this pair and that we were looking to get long on a pullback. Our views have not changed; we still are looking for a buying opportunity to get long GBPJPY, in-line with this fresh bullish momentum. Traders can look for any weakness or a price action confirmation signal on the daily chart to get long as we anticipate this uptrend will resume after a pullback. Watch the 21 day ema value (support) area as well as support near 1.3235 for potential buying opportunities. You will notice the large bullish pin bar that formed the week before last, that was really the event that signaled us to start looking for buying opportunities in this pair. Patience will be rewarded as this current up-move could be the start of something more substantial as there’s potentially 1,000 pips of upside from 133.00 area into the overhead key resistance up near 143.00.


US500 – U.S. stocks continue surging higher
The US500 is essentially in a runaway uptrend right now. As we know from recent history, these upward legs can last far longer than people tend to think, so avoid being on the short side whilst the uptrend remains intact. Savvy traders need to be opportunistic and use any price weakness as a buying opportunity, watch for pullbacks to the 8 or 21 day ema. You may not see a clean price action buy signal, so the more experienced trader may elect for the relevant support levels.


Gold – Gold approaching key long-term support area
Gold is approaching a key long-term support area down near 1140.00 – 1180.00. This market has lost a lot of ground in recent weeks and it’s likely we will see some kind of ‘dead-cat bounce’ from these extreme price zones in the next few weeks. We wouldn’t be keen sellers at these prices, and would rather look to be opportunistic at the 1140.00 handle and watch for convincing buy signals on 4-hour or daily chart to confirm an entry.


Oil – Watch for bounce from 43.00 key support in crude
Crude Oil keeps bouncing aggressively up from 43.00 key support. We can continue to watch this level for potential buying opportunities should price test it again in the coming days.