Weekly Market Commentary: January 9th to 13th 2016

EURUSD – The EURUSD is still in a downtrend overall, but last week we saw price retrace back to the upside and it’s now within a resistance zone between 1.0530 – 1.0670. Notice that price is still below the high of the pin bar sell signal that formed back on December 30th as well as resistance up near 1.0670. Whilst price is under that level, we remain bearish and looking for sell signals this week. We are waiting to see what unfolds here and we would prefer to see an obvious 1hr, 4hr or daily chart price action sell signal before selling.eurusd-jan-09GBPUSD – The GBPUSD has stalled near 1.2335; a level we have been watching and discussing in recent commentaries. After trading down through that level two weeks ago, price retraced back up to test it late last week, but as we can see by the false-break that occurred on Friday, bears are defending this level quite aggressively. We retain a bearish bias on this pair and would consider a short entry if a solid 1 hour, 4 hour or daily chart price action sell signal forms near current levels this week.


AUDUSD – The AUDUSD seems to have gotten some traction over the last few days and is now pushing higher after easily breaking and closing above 0.7310 resistance. We wouldn’t be surprised to see price try to move up and re-test key resistance up near 0.7505. We still favor the short side in this pair and will wait for a clear price action sell signal to form near resistance levels before jumping back in.

audusd-jan-09NZDUSD – The NZDUSD reversed on Friday, erasing all gains from Thursday and making a false breakout of resistance near 0.6980. The trend is down in this pair still and we see the reversal on Friday as a potential selling opportunity. Traders can watch for early strength this week to potentially get short and trade in-line with this downtrend as there’s plenty of room for prices to fall to the downside.


Gold – Over the last two weeks, Gold has bounced up after running into a key long-term support level down near 1130.00; a level we have discussed as a potential buy-point in our recent commentaries. We remain bullish in the near-term on Gold whilst it’s above 1130.00 and will continue to watch for pullbacks to be buyers, ideally on a price action buy signal. We see the potential for upside movement into 1240.00 area.


S&P500 – The S&P500 continues to trend higher and our recent views of looking to buy on pockets of weakness remains valid. We are still looking to buy this market from support / value on pullbacks, and we can see 2212.00 – 2179.00 support zone is the nearest key support on the daily chart. Note that an inside pin bar pattern formed last Thursday, which we discussed in our members commentary that day. Price subsequently broke up and out from that pattern as we expected. We see the potential for this uptrend to continue and traders not already long can keep looking for 1 hour, 4 hour or daily chart buy signal on any weakness down, ideally near the 21 day EMA or previously mentioned support levels.


Crude Oil – Crude Oil remains bullish and as we can see below, it is clearly still in an uptrend. We remain bullish above 49.30 key support level and we can watch for price action signals to get long on any weakness this week.