Weekly Market Commentary- January 23rd – 27th 2017

EURUSD – Euro/Dollar pushes higher, above resistance

The EURUSD has experienced a moderate rally in recent weeks, within the overall downtrend it has been in. Price broke up above 1.0670 key resistance last Tuesday and ended the week just above that level. If prices remain buoyant above 1.0670 we will likely see some more upside movement before 1.0875 resistance comes into play. Savvy traders could look for buying opportunities this week on weakness, targeting 1.0875 resistance. If price moves up to that 1.0875 level we would look to be sellers there.


GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar false-break leads to bullish surge higher
The GBPUSD briefly broke down through 1.2100 support at last week’s opening. We discussed that level in our recent commentaries, indicating that prices could bounce higher from there. What ended up happening was basically a false break of that support, as prices quickly reversed and surged higher. Notice that prices even closed up above 1.2335 resistance, showing the conviction of bulls. Prices showed more bullish sentiment on Friday as prices rejected lower prices and formed a small bullish pin bar. We could see more follow-through to the upside this week and savvy traders could look for buying opportunities whilst remaining cautious and aware of overhead resistance levels and that long-term trend is still down.


AUDUSD – Aussie/dollar bulls in control but key resistance approaching
AUDUSD sustained itself above 0.7505 last week, indicating bulls may push prices higher to the next resistance near 0.7735 area. We are cautious here, but could see price move up to key resistance at 0.7735 – 0.7835 area, at which point we would definitely look to be sellers. Savvy traders can look for buy opportunities this week on weakness, only with a signal though.


NZDUSD – Kiwi/dollar bullish momentum intact buy resistance overhead
The NZDUSD strengthened last week but did struggle to push above resistance up near 0.7225 area. Price will need to bust above that level this week for bulls to continue this current rally. If that happens, we could see a re-test of 0.7395 area resistance, which is a level we would look to sell from. More aggressive traders could look for buy signals this week, but we would strictly be waiting for a clear signal before getting long here as it’s a riskier play with all the resistance overhead.


EURGBP – Euro/pound selling opportunity continues
The EURGBP has been trending lower after topping out in October 2016. Notice the two giant event areas on the chart below, the market has experienced a vacuum back up to test these areas recently. We have a confluence of two factors that support a bearish bias under 0.8850 resistance area; Obvious strong resistance area at the previous event areas that are now containing the market, and an approximate 50% retrace of the initial swing lower, both of which we can see below. For bears, it all depends on the line in the sand at 0.8850; if price is below that containment level, we expect the market to trade lower. We are looking to be sellers on any pockets of strength and we would hold short positions until a strong break or close back above 0.8850. Downside targets are near 0.8340 or even lower potentially.


Crude oil / WTIUSD- Oil bulls remain in control
As we’ve discussed in recent commentaries, the Crude Oil market continues to look strong. Notice that two recent bearish pin bars have not had any impact on prices, therefore a break above those pins could activate higher prices, be sure to checkout our members-only lesson that discusses how to trade failed pin bars. Crude Oil is bullish above 49.30 and 50.80 and we remain opportunistic buyers until there’s a convincing close below 49.30 key support level.


US500 – US500 consolidating, but remains buoyant

Markets continue to cheer with optimism as Donald Trump became the 45th President of the U.S.A. However, this week, all eyes are on Dow 20,000 and the US500 recent all-time highs at 2277.00 area. Before the markets can continue higher, they must overcome these current hurdles. The US500 consolidated again last week, but whilst above 2227.00 and 2170.00 key support, the bulls remain strongly in control and the multi-year bull market continues. It might be a good idea to wait for a breakout and close higher before looking for another long entry or we could wait for a more substantial pull-back into the 2227.00 support handle and look to get long there. Either way, this market is strongly biased to the upside and buying the dips remains the strategy of choice.