Weekly Market Commentary – January 30th to February 3rd 2017

EURUSD – Euro/dollar turns bearish again
After retracing higher the last month, within the overall downtrend, the EURUSD ran into resistance up near 1.0770, and that level is currently containing price. We saw consistent selling pressure near 1.0770 after price tested that level last week; as evidenced by a 4 hour bearish reversal on Friday. We are looking to sell rallies this week whilst under that 1.0770 resistance level.


GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar remains mildly bullish
In recent weeks, we have discussed a false break of 1.2100 key support level in the GBPUSD, which has led to this recent surge higher within the context of the overall downtrend. We still see this pair as mildly bullish whilst above the ‘line in the sane’ level at 1.2430. You will notice a recent inside bar break higher that took place last week; that event area should act as support this week if we manage to re-test it (1.2430 area). This week, we are looking to potentially get long whilst prices close above 1.2430 with upside potential back to 1.2765 previous swing high area. However, we would avoid long positions on a convincing close under 1.2430 level.


AUDUSD – Aussie/dollar rotating lower after hitting resistance zone
Following a meteoric run higher in recent weeks, the AUDUSD appears to have finally slowed down after running into stiff resistance up near 0.7606. The market has peeled away (fallen lower) and sustained sell pressure under 0.7606, the bias looks tentatively short whilst the market closes below 0.7606. Therefore, selling rallies this week would be the strategy of choice until we see a convincing close above 0.7606.


EURGBP – Euro/Sterling sell-off continues
As discussed in our January 17th commentary, the EURGBP has been trending lower after topping out in October 2016. Price has fallen significantly lower last week, in-line with our recent discussion and call to sell whilst under 0.8850. For those of you not already short, there’s still potential for this market to continue falling. We are looking to be sellers on any pockets of strength and will retain our bearish bias until a close back above 0.8850 key resistance. Downside targets are near 0.8340 or even lower, potentially.


USDJPY – Dollar/yen gaining steam again
For the USDJPY, 115.30 is the ‘line in sand’; if prices break above that level there’s risk of a larger move higher. We would avoid selling this week given the momentum and the recovery up from recent support.


GOLD/XAUUSD – Gold pulls back to downside after strong run higher
The recent uptrend that we have discussed in Gold, has cooled off after testing 1220.00. The market has found support at 1180.00 area and bounced into Friday’s close, forming a small bullish tailed bar. This is not a large reversal and has not formed at any significant level, so it’s nothing to get overly-excited about. However, we are still bullish on Gold, but we prefer to wait for more substantial evidence before re-committing to long positions; stand aside until something cleaner presents itself on the chart.


US500 – U.S. Stocks push up to new highs

After consolidating and chopping sideways for several weeks, the US500 broke higher from inside bar cluster last week, hitting new all-time highs. The chart below is a good example of a short squeeze; where those that kept betting against the uptrend were / are forced to cover their losing short positions following the break higher, which fuels further buying. There is no end in sight for the current upward swing and it would be incredibly risky to fight this bullish move until there is sufficient evidence to suggest the short-term trend has turned lower. As we have been for months now, we remain bullish on this market and will continue to look to buy on pullbacks to support (weakness). We are now viewing 2275.00 as short-term support, followed by 2250.00 and 2225.00 as the next key support area; look to be a buyer at those areas this week on any weakness.


WTI – Crude Oil consolidates
The Crude Oil market consolidated last week, chopping sideways and failed to breakout higher last week. Notice the multiple inside bars triggered a one day break out higher but subsequent failure on Friday. So, right now, we are in ‘hurry up and wait mode’. There’s major support at 49.30 and we are still mildly bullish above that key technical support level. Buy dips remains the view, but wait for strong price action confirmation before entering.