Weekly Market Commentary- February 13th to 17th 2017

EURUSD – Euro/dollar stays contained under key resistance area
The EURUSD fell modestly lower last week, following a small bearish fakey / pin bar that formed last week in the resistance zone between 1.0770 – 1.0875 area. The market ended last week week right at the 10620 major support area, so there is a chance prices could bounce from here in the short term. Overall, we see the potential for further declines in this pair whilst under key resistance zone at 1.077-1.0875. Whilst prices remain under the key 1.0770 -1.0875 containment zone, traders can look to sell on strength this week.
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GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar upside potential remains after pin bar signal
The GBPUSD moved slightly higher last week, following the bullish pin bar / buy signal which formed and that we discussed in our February 7th commentary. Our view hasn’t changed; we can still look to be buyers whilst prices are above key support at 1.2400. However, a decisive close under 1.2400 – 1.2350 would open the door for more losses.

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EURGBP – Euro/Pound remains weak under key resistance
The EURGBP tried to recover over the last two weeks, but as we can see below, bears came back in and held price down. Our downward bias remains whilst under 0.8850 key resistance, in-line with our view in recent weeks Traders not already short can wait for another sell signal this week whilst prices are contained under 0.8850 resistance.

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AUDUSD – Aussie/dollar remains buoyant, but key resistance looms
The AUDUSD consolidated last week, but did post a modest rally into Friday’s close. The support at the recent lows at 0.7520-40 is still significant in the short-term as the bulls continue to maintain control. Price can easily trade up into key long term resistance overhead near 0.7735-78 before experiencing any sell pressure. This week, traders could play longs from 0.7520-40 support and shorts from 0.7735-0.7778 resistance region.

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USDJPY – Dollar/yen remains weak whilst under resistance
After connecting to new recent lows and breaking 112.50 support, the USDJPY cosolidated last week, before breaking back above 112.50 aggresively into Friday. The market appears to be looking to rotate back to the high of the recent short-term range near 115.30 resistance. Overall, the downtrend in the current swing remains intact, with 115.30 the short-term resistance. Whilst prices are below that level (115.30) traders can continue to look to sell on any price strength. IF the market picks up steam to the downside and closes back below 112.50 convincingly, expect prices to challenge 110.90 longer-term support.

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Gold – Gold uptrend continues, more upside possible
Gold prices have found a nice bottom again at $1180 area recently. Notice price broke up above 1220.00 resistance last week, a level we mentioned in the weekly commentary recently. Price should remain buoyant and we could see further upside into $1250.00 this week and potentially $1300.00 in coming weeks. The market looks to have enough momentum to trade $50 to $100 higher in a short space of time towards $1300. Whilst above recent lows $1180.00, traders can look to buy weakness if and where possible this week.

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Crude – Crude Oil remains a potential buy on pullbacks
Our bias in Crude Oil remains the same as recent weeks: we are bullish whilst above 49.30 key support and 50.80.Note the market sold off … our view has been to buy weakness on a pull back whilst above support, and last week provided that opportunity, unfortunately there was not much by way of price action confirmation on the daily chart. As we can see below, however, there was a huge weekly pin bar reversal on the weekly chart, showing the conviction of bulls. The market is having some trouble at $54 resistance, however, if price can move up through and close above that level, there is upside potential into recent highs and beyond. We see this market as a potential buy on a pullback this week, but there’s a lot of chop right now so we are waiting until a signal forms on the daily or 4 hour chart to get in long.

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US500 – US500 bullish run continues
For the US500, price pushed higher again last week, in-line with the long-term uptrend in this market. Prices remain very buoyant here, near the all-time highs, with no end in sight for the uptrend. Traders can still look to buy short term price dips whilst prices remain above short term key support near 2277.00.

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