Weekly Market Commentary – February 27th to March 3rd

EURUSD – Euro/dollar bears remain in control
The EURUSD fell lower again last week as price continues to trend lower, however, it is still trading just above 1.0520 support area; a level price will need to break under to extend the downtrend. We can see that there was a bearish daily tailed bar that formed on Friday, signaling potential for prices to move lower. We still favor the downside whilst prices are contained under 1.0800 – 1.0875 area resistance.


GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar moves sideways, just above key support
The GBPUSD consolidated last week as this market has been quite choppy recently and directionless. We remain slightly bullish whilst above 1.2350-12400 area. We also note the large daily pin bar from several weeks ago, continues to remain active, however a failure and daily close below the tail of that bar would suggest downside risk. As of now we are not initiating any new positions.


USDJPY – Dollar/yen continues to lose ground
In the USDJPY, Price sold off from 115.30 after testing that area two weeks ago, as we discussed as a possibility in our recent commentaries on this pair. Price closed under 112.50 last week, opening the door for more downside movement. There is now short-term resistance at 113.70 (last week’s swing high). Look to sell strength this week whilst under 113.70 and expect the market to rotate lower mid-term, whilst below 115.30 major resistance. Target areas are at 111.60 and 110.60 this week.


AUDUSD – Aussie/dollar pushing higher, but approaching key resistance
The AUDUSD was seen consolidating last week, within the current swing higher, but price looks to be struggling near overhead resistance at 0.7730-80. We are continuing to watch for buying opportunities between 0.7600 support and 0.7515. Price could test 0.7730 – 0.7780 key resistance area this week but will need to gain momentum if it’s going to breakout convincingly. Traders should be careful committing to longs around that major resistance area this week.


EURGBP – Euro/pound downward track continues
The EURGBP continues to grind lower, trending lower since reversing up near 0.8850 back in early January. Our downward bias remains whilst under 0.8850 key resistance, in-line with our view in recent weeks. Traders not already short can wait for another sell signal this week whilst prices are contained under 0.8850 resistance.


Gold – Gold uptrend intact
Gold has moved higher since our February 14th commentary, in which we discussed looking to buy on pullbacks. We can see that price broke up through 1250.00 last week, closing the week above that level. Our recent call of looking to buy pullbacks whilst the market is above 1200-1220 support remains; we will watch for any weakness this week and look at the 1hr, 4hr or daily charts for price action buy signals to trade in-line with the uptrend, targeting 1300.00.


US500 – US500 bulls continue to dominate
The US500 continues to trend higher, hitting new all-time highs again last week. Prices remain very buoyant here, with no end in sight for the uptrend. Traders can still look to buy short-term price dips whilst prices remain above short term key support levels. This week, we will watch 2336.00 area and 2300.00 for buying opportunities on any pullbacks.


WTIUSD/Crude – Crude Oil grinding higher
In Crude Oil, price consolidated near the highs of the recent trading range last week, just under 54.00 key resistance. We can still look to be buyers on a pullback whilst above the bottom of the range at 49.30 and 50.80. Look for bullish signals on daily or 4 hour chart.